Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?

The One That Didn’t Happen In Costa Rica Yet!

Costa Rica Earthquake ActivityIn the early days of 2012, Costa Rica has exhibited some early earthquake rumblings in most recently the Tobosi de Cartago area of Costa Rica. But is there a process out there that can warn you in advance of a potentially devasting earthquake. One organization, Quake Red Alert seems to think so.

Based out of Brazil, Quake Red Alert is a earthquake forecast studies team who through their system, a triangulation-based algorithm for seismic forecasting appear to have been able to detect about 80% of future earthquakes.  Together with his team, Aroldo Maciel study and research data on earthquakes and have developed a system to “predict” earthquake activity.

Although many feel that Quake Red Alert’s methods are speculative only, The Volcanological and Seismological Observatory of Costa Rica or OVSICORI is willing to take precautions based on the organization’s statements. Others feel that playing with statistics is just speculation that can lead to unnecessary worry and play with people’s minds.

The predictions, found on Quake Red Alert’s Twitter feed, https://twitter.com/QuakeRedAlert indicated “Possibility of earthquake in Nicaragua and Panama region between estimated time 16hrs.” on January 4, 2012. There is also speculation about the possibility of an earthquake in the Pacific coast of Costa Rica, in the Nicoya region of significant magnitude.

The Brazilian team of Quake Red Alert has been successful in predicting earthquake activity. They were on top of the Japan earthquake, yet the Geologists Association of Costa Rica remains unresponsive to the Quake Red Alert’s information. On their Facebook page,  http://www.facebook.com/notes/comisi%C3%B3n-nacional-de-emergencias/colegio-de-ge%C3%B3logos-de-costa-rica-se-pronuncia-sobre-predicci%C3%B3n-y-pron%C3%B3stico-de-/249801205081588 they have made a brief reference to the predictions by stating,

“In recent months there have been some Web sites that try to make earthquake prediction as the site Quake Red Alert  also known as the  ”Brazilian method ” which try to play with the statistics and how the seismicity in certain regions, like Latin America, which in itself is very high and frequent, it can occasionally get it right and sometimes not, but we can not consider these sites as truly scientific, and international level, have not been accepted within the scientific community for any global seismological center, the errors tend to be more than forecast assumptions.”

Predictions Have Some Accuracy

Costa Rica has experienced its own devastation when it comes to earthquakes with the worst being a 6.2 magnitude quake back in 2009. If there is the possibility of being warned in advance of something that could be damaging to the country, should we not at least be aware? Although not scientific in its nature, Quake Red Alert may have some insight and their track record doesn’t seem to be way off.

Living in a country which is susceptible to earthquake activity requires a certain resolve. For those in Costa Rica it is important to prepare for an eventual emergency. Afterall, it can’t be all Pura Vida can it?


Filed Under: FeaturedFeatured - Living and RetiringNicoya


About the Author: Tee is Senior Editor of CostaRicaCLOSEUP.com and NBC's adventure dating series fans magazine LoveInTheWildFansMag.com, as well ascontributing editor to QRCodesUSA.org

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